Aberdeen sent out a one question survey to over 250 friends and clients on July 30, 2010. The recipients are sophisticated investors from all over the U.S.
The survey asked the recipients to provide an indication where they stand in terms of U.S. market prospects. 38% of the recipients opened the survey and 17% of the recipients responded.
The responses were as follows.
Our crowd is clearly “cautiously optimistic”. It’s an open question if this means “ready to re-enter the market” or “sit tight – hold cash”.
There were quite a few comments. 49% of the respondents provided more color to their views. The comments were most consistent in concerns about the size of government and prospect for rising taxes.
The ratio of the bulls to the bears was 0.70. The following chart from Yardeni Research provides some historical context to the low bull/bear ratio. As you can see, “low” = “good time to be a buyer” and is consistent with recent low points in the market in 2002-2003 and 2008-2009.