The “January Effect” seems to have statistical merit. Up Januarys have tended to lead up years. Down Januarys are not conclusively bearish

Yardeni Research published a nifty scatterplot of the performance of the S&P 500
during each January and its full year from 1947 through 2013.  Over the past 67 years covered by the analysis, January and its full year have been up 55% of the time. During only four years (1966, 1994, 2001, and 2011) were up Januarys followed by full-year declines. Down Januarys aren’t necessarily bearish.  There were 11 down Januarys that opened 11 up years. There were 14 down Januarys followed by full-year declines.  My view is it’s more about the earnings and interest rate outlook than the calendar that determines the market.  Jeb B.Terry, SR.  Jan. 12, 2014

January effect scatter chart 1-12-14

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