Q4 Earnings ‘Beat Rate’ A Positive Indicator

Earnings Continued to Strongly Beat Estimates in Q4 . . .

 The composite earnings performance as tracked by Bespoke Investment Group showed the universe of public companies beat earnings estimates by 66%.  In the time frame displayed the market (as measured by the S&P 500) has continued to rise in most cases when the beat rate exceeds 62.5%.  For example there has been only one down quarter since Mar. 2009 when the beat rate climbed above 62%.  The market rose in 16 of 21 quarters by a total of ~80% when the beat rate was generally above 62.5% from Sep. 2002 to Sep 2007.  Jeb Terry, Sr. Mar. 1, 2011

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