Obama odds for re-election lower than Bush’s in 2004, lower than his own in 2008.

According to the blog Sober Look, “the president’s reelection chances are now lower than his own chances 4 years ago and even Bush’s reelection probability 8 years ago. What this tells us is that even though Obama is still more likely to win (by a narrow margin), his path to the White House is far less certain”.  They base this viewpoint on the trend in bets made on the popular prediction marketplace – Intrade.  The following chart displays the evolution of the odds for election for Bush in 2004 and Obama in 2008 and year to date.  Jeb Terry, Sr. June 20, 2012

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