It’s logical to wonder what has been the tendency for the equity market performance in Presidential election years. I have prepared the following table on the S&P 500 annual price performance going back to 1948. As you can see, the market has been up in 75% of the years an average of 11.9%. I think it is instructive that the best year was 1980 when Reagan defeated Carter. Jeb Terry, Sr. April 19, 2012
CXO Advisory Group, LLC (here) was kind enough to post the following chart on the monthly returns for the Dow Jones Industrial Avg. in election years compared to non-election years. It is visually clear that Presidential election years tend to have better than normal returns in July, much better returns than non-election years in August, better in September and better than years where there are no elections in Nov. and Dec. April, May and October look to be usually down months.
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