It’s time to look to Q4 . . . Using history as a guide, the high odds bet is that the market will be up and possibly by a large margin.

Q4 is the seasonally best time of the year.  In the post WWII history of the U.S., the market has been up 79% of the time in Q4.  It has been up a preponderance of the time whether Q3 earnings were up or not.  Since 1980, the market has been up in 80% the time in Q4.  It has been up in 80% of the quarters regardless if Q3 earnings were up or down. 

Add the fact that Q4 will be following a panic quarter and its seasonal strength – along with ample liquidity to fuel pent up demand for a big holiday season – and the outlook for Q4 is strong – possibly very strong.  If the economy is only in a slowdown – as I suspect – and NOT a recession, there could be a virtuous combination of rising estimates for 2012 along with encouraging, near real time news of holiday spending, along with potentially favorable fiscal and tax policy news out of Washington.  Jeb Terry, Sr. Aug 20, 2011

 Aberdeen Investment Management – a guide service for micro-cap technology investment

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