The Crossing Wall Street Blog has displayed a good chart compiling 115 years of market history that shows the typical movement in the stock market in the four years of a presidential term. Some of you may be surprised to see that the historical low point of the election year has occurred on May 29th. Investing in the S&P 500 at that point and holding the position until August of the following year (1st year of the presidential term) has produced an average return of 23.2%. This analysis comports with my work and work done by Ned Davis Research. Election years are typically up 74% of the time. Of course, this could be one of those years where 26% of the time the market is down. Jeb Terry, Sr. June 25, 2012
HT to Abnormal Returns for publishing this.
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