Consumer confidence headed for test of Great Recession lows. It was a positive contrarian signal then and is the same today

Despite growing (albeit slowly) employment, improving earnings, and a declining personal debt burden, consumer confidence is testing levels seen in at the depths of the Great Recession in 2008/2009.  The last time sentiment was this low in the spring of 2009 the economy was shedding jobs at the rate of 700,000 per month.  The economy added 331,000 jobs last month according to the household survey of the BLS.  The low sentiment is not supported by the facts. Hence, it is driven by non-core news flow and threats to consumer/investor wellbeing such as the ongoing political debate about deficits and increased taxes.  Low sentiment is not a precursor to recession.  It is a precursor to recovery.  Jeb Terry, Sr. Sept 24, 2011

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