‘Stampede of Cash”, “Floodgates have Broken Open”, – here comes more cash to buy equities

| July 22, 2013

Earlier this month I said “The so called “great rotation” from bonds to stocks may be upon us”.  The data is confirming the rotation is indeed driving funds out of bonds and into stocks.  The quotes in the title of this post are from an article on Business Insider (here). They note there has been $50 […]




Bond investors bailing out of bond funds in unprecedented amounts – experts say more to come. It’s about time they got the joke. Stocks are better investments – at least for now.

| July 6, 2013

There has never been as much money yanked out of bond funds as have been withdrawn in the last month (see charts from Yardeni and Trimtabs as reported by CNBC below). The gurus at PIMCO are putting on a brave face but the irrational accumulation of bonds witnessed since the Great Recession appears to be […]




IPO activity says “Risk On Baby”. 2013 looks to be best year since before the Great Recession.

| July 6, 2013

IPO filings are up 45% through June.  IPO pricings are up 26% YTD over 2012.  Increasing IPO activity is a good “risk on” indicator.  The average first day performance, a gain of 13% so far this year, has been restored to pre-recession levels.  ( see charts on IPO metrics from Renaissance Capital here) A healthy […]




Cash is returning to the real economy suggesting profit growth lies ahead.

| July 5, 2013

U.S. investors are coming out of their foxholes.  We can say this because we can measure their willingness to hold less capital in the form of cash and more in the form of productive assets.  The change in the balances of cash held in banks and money market funds (M2 for the money and banking […]




Steepening yield curve = improving economy and rising stock market

| July 5, 2013

The yield curve as expressed by the spread between the 10 yr. Treasury rate and the Fed Funds rate just got steeper.  A steepening in the yield curve happens twice in an economic cycle.  It happens as the Fed is easing by reducing Fed Funds and they happen when the economy is improving and long […]




S&P 500 was up in 1H by 12.6%, strongest since 1998. If history is a guide, expect for upside for the rest of 2013 and into 2014.

| July 5, 2013

Only 17 times since 1927 has market been as strong in first 6 months 2nd half of year has been up 70.6% of time following such a strong 1st half by an average of 12.2% and a median of 11%. 1998, the last time there was as strong a 1st half, saw the market rise […]




The Jury is in – Mobile will be the primary tool for global internet access. 93% of the World’s population has a cell phone or knows someone with a cell phone.

| July 5, 2013

Recent data released by the International Telecommunication Union has revealed just how dominant the mobile internet is becoming.  Over 2 billion people can now access the internet by a mobile device.  Mobile internet access has reached this level of penetration in less than half the time it took wired internet users to reach the same […]




Can you spell B-O-O-M? As in oil and gas boom in the U.S. This is a story of massive productivity gains driven by technological innovation.

| July 4, 2013

The growth in U.S. oil and gas product has been stunning.  The increase in production has been the most seen in decades.  It was entirely unforeseen and is a direct result of new extraction TECHNOLOGY.  Geologists have known of the location and approximate size of the reserves.  The exact location and the size have been […]




Investor sentiment is bullish – Recent Drop in Bulls, Rise in Bears sets up market for more upside

| July 4, 2013

The American Assoc. of Individual Investors (AAII) has been measuring investor sentiment every week for years.  As you can expect – many market historians have attempted to tease some meaning and predictive qualities from the data.  The chart below is an expression of what happens to the price of the S&P 500 10 weeks following […]