Mobile advertising estimates for 2013 raised by 63% to $7.2bil from $4.4bil.

| March 16, 2013

Projections for ad spending on mobile devices went from high to higher.  You wouldn’t know it from the stock prices of companies in the space but this tide is rising. An article in Mobile Marketer (here) had this to say . . .  eMarketer recently significantly increased its 2012-2016 projections for U.S. mobile advertising.  In December […]

“Affluents” are 26% more optimistic than in October 2012

| March 16, 2013

The mood of owners of 69% of the American net worth are feeling better.  No wonder equity mutual fund inflows and home purchasing are up.  Perhaps a virtuous cycle is beginning to take effect . . . According to survey by Ipsos (here) . . . “ affluent optimism in the U.S. economy, and in […]

Companies are buying their shares in record amounts. Sign of weakness or a sign of strength?

| March 13, 2013

The simple facts are that there has never been as much money spent and / or approved by corporate America to buy in shares.  This has happened as a dramatic spike as can be seen in the charts blow from JPMorgan and Birinyi Associates.  We haven’t seen as dramatic a spike since late 2005.  The […]

The boom in all things “mobile” is continuing and expected to continue for the foreseeable future.

| March 9, 2013

It’s appropriate to revisit the outlook for the growth in all things “mobile” coming on the heels of the Mobile World Congress.  Cisco updated their forecast of mobile data traffic last month (“wireless” is the operative concept).  I have included a chart and tables that hit some key points such as mobile data traffic grew […]

The case for the end of the secular bear market and start of a secular bull market.

| March 9, 2013

Multiple stock indices and sub-indices are breaching all-time high price levels.  There is no confusion over the fact that we have been in a “bull market” since 2009.  There is a debate if we are exiting the secular bear market that started with the tech crash and entering a new 10 year plus secular bull […]

Two leading labor indicators pointing up = more upside to employment and more . . .

| March 9, 2013

The labor report of March 8, 2013 was better than expected.  Within the report were encouraging indicators that the improved results may persist.  The Carpe Diem Blog published the following chart of temporary help workers and manufacturing overtime. Each are sloping upward.  Each are precursors to changes in the direction of hiring. Each are at […]

New all-time high for the Dow – What comes next? Bullish or Bearish?

| March 5, 2013

Historical analysis says “bullish” . . .  We have access to data covering the S&P 500 instead of the Dow.  The takeaways seems likely to be the same.  Analysis by Ned Davis Research suggests the bull market could go one for another 400+ days and the market could rise another 18%.  I have included a […]

Cash beginning to be mobilized in markets and the real economy

| March 3, 2013

After unprecedented growth in cash held in banks in response to the 2008 financial crisis, the European debt crisis, U.S. debt ceiling panic attack, fear over the Presidential election and the “fiscal cliff” – we are beginning to see billions of dollars start to flow back into the markets and real economy.  Regardless of the destination […]

“History’s verdict is clear… You’re much better off buying at new highs than at new lows”

| March 3, 2013

There is a classic debate as to whether to “Buy High. Sell Higher” or “Buy Low, Sell High” between momentum investors and value investors.  Dr. Steve Sjuggerud of Daily Wealth blog, raised this topic of many doctoral studies last week.  The upshot is his claim that buying stocks when the stock market is at a 12 month high and […]

Many reasons to see sustained market gains but margin debt may suggest a correction

| March 3, 2013

Margin debt has been rising along with the stock market.  My suspicion is that the increased participation by hedge funds and other leveraged players may distort the historical picture. Nonetheless, spikes in margin debt (i.e. “negative credit balance” in the following chart) have been consistent with approaching market corrections or at worst, material market tops.  The analysis […]