Internet Advertising Revenues Hit Historic High @ $9.3 Billion, +18% Over 2011

| December 19, 2012

This just out from the IAB . . . Internet advertising revenues in the U.S. reached $9.26 billion for the third quarter of 2012, making the quarter the biggest on record, according to the latest IAB Internet Advertising Revenue Report figures released today by the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) and PwC US. These figures show […]




Bulls popping up all over the place

| December 19, 2012

Recent “smart money” polls are showing decisive turns to the “bull” case.  I have included below recently published polls from Bespoke Investment Group  and Birinyi Associates .The bullish tilt is unmistakable. Bespoke had this to say . . . “As shown below, there were more bulls than bears in our weekly market poll for the sixth […]




US Mobile Ad Spending Jumps to $4 Billion this year, eMarketer says it will be over $7 billion in 2013 – “nice”

| December 17, 2012

Here is what eMarketer had to say today . . . US mobile ad spending is growing faster than previously expected,  . . . eMarketer expects overall spending on mobile advertising in the US, including display, search and messaging-based ads served to mobile phones and tablets, to rise 180% this year to top $4 billion. […]




Here is an eye opener . . . 10 year Treasury rate hit a 220 YEAR low earlier this year.

| December 15, 2012

A recent research piece from BofA Merrill Lynch included the following chart.  Merrill has been championing a concept called the “Great Rotation” where they see a massive and prolonged rotation out of bonds – particularly government bonds – and into stocks.  This rotation is expected to become obvious in “spring 2013”.  Their analyst, Michael Hartnett […]




Another bullish indicator says we are at a bottom

| December 15, 2012

A friend sent me an interesting post from Stocktwits.com last week that included a chart with an unequivocal message . . . when investors bailed out of the Rydex Total Bull Fund Index in the past they signaled a bottom in the stock market. You can see in the chart below just how obvious that […]




Good news – Trough monetary velocity suggests growth can accelerate. Bad news – sharp increase in M1 says people are scared and depriving the economy of growth capital and spending.

| December 10, 2012

The pile of cash in the U.S. economy is phenomenal.  It is being underutilized.  Banks are full of low cost deposits but are challenged to find enough commercial and industrial loans to abate the dropping velocity of M1.  This can all change.  When depositors decide to re-engage with the economy and replace worn out vehicles […]




The Imminent Mobile Commerce Avalanche

| December 9, 2012

A recent blog post at Search Engine Watch had the above title and following charts displaying continuing explosive growth in tablet computer sales – as we have noted in the past. The news item here is the implication that at 10% of all eCommerce retail spending, advertising spending on “mobile” could rise to ~2% of […]




Home prices are rising and bolstering consumer confidence and financial health

| December 9, 2012

The Carpe Diem blog reported home prices posted a 6.3% year-over-year gain in October, which was the largest annual increase in home prices nationwide in more than six years, since June 2006.  It also marked a period of eight consecutive monthly increases in home prices on a year-over-year basis starting in March.  The CEO of […]




Massive consumer liquidity available to fund growth, forestall a recession.

| December 8, 2012

In all the worrying about the “fiscal cliff” and slow growth in employment, people are ignoring the fact that households have repaired their balance sheets.  Households now have more cash and savings relative to personal income and consumer credit than any time in last 30+ years.  A recession would be unlikely either to occur or […]




Elevated equity risk premium suggests superior equity market returns lie ahead.

| December 8, 2012

The implied “equity risk premium”, i.e. the amount of return equity investors are demanding for investing in stocks over bonds, is at the 96th percentile of experience going back over 50 years – that’s high!  The data reveals that when the ERP has been above 5%, the S&P 500 has gained an average of 13.8% […]