The S&P 500 is now up 8.3% YTD, best 1H since 2003, augurs well for strong remainder of year. . .

| June 30, 2012

The S&P 500 gained 8.31% in the first 6 months.  This is the best since the market rose 9.8% in 1H 2003.  The market has gained 8.3% or better in only 27 years since 1926.  The market has gone on to rise an average of 11.2% in 2H in 78% of the years with such […]




Earnings Estimates are still pointing up for 2012 despite fears of slowdown. . .

| June 30, 2012

The updated estimates for the S&P 500, displayed in the following chart, are still indicating growth of 18% for 2012 – not bad –eh?  The estimates for Q2 have been dropped by 2.6% from late March.  The estimates for the full year 2012 have been dropped by 1.1%.  While the estimates for 2012 have dropped […]




Historical Election Cycle Says there is BIAS TO UPSIDE for remainder of this year . . .

| June 25, 2012

The Crossing Wall Street Blog has displayed a good chart compiling 115 years of market history that shows the typical movement in the stock market in the four years of a presidential term.  Some of you may be surprised to see that the historical low point of the election year has occurred on May 29th.  […]




NASDAQ bottom may be setting . . . similar to 2011, 2010

| June 24, 2012

The NASDAQ chart suggests we may have set a medium term bottom.  I now expect more strength to end the quarter.  The macro numbers have been weaker than expected but not too weak.  The upcoming earnings season should provide enough “beats” to drive the market higher going into the seasonally stronger 2H and the election. […]




Why we like online advertising . . . because it’s growing FAST!

| June 23, 2012

The online ad ecosystem has strong growth despite global macro economic concerns.  The chart below (courtesy of the IAB Internet Advertising Report 2011), displays the growth in quarterly online ad spending in the U.S. since 1996.  Online ad spending has grown ~14% per annum since 2000 even taking into account two recessions.  It took only […]




Record high crude oil inventory = lower gasoline prices = consumer windfall

| June 21, 2012

Bespoke Investment Group published a remarkable chart showing the record level of crude oil inventory compared to levels seen since 1984.  No wonder gasoline prices have fallen sharply since March.  The market strategist at Stifel Nicolaus has estimated that the drop in gasoline prices has generated as much as $100 billion in savings for U.S. […]




Obama odds for re-election lower than Bush’s in 2004, lower than his own in 2008.

| June 20, 2012

According to the blog Sober Look, “the president’s reelection chances are now lower than his own chances 4 years ago and even Bush’s reelection probability 8 years ago. What this tells us is that even though Obama is still more likely to win (by a narrow margin), his path to the White House is far […]




US corporate liquidity is the highest in 50 years – lots of ammo for an investment boom if confidence improves.

| June 10, 2012

Capital Economics recently published an amazing chart illustrating the degree of liquidity in the U.S. corporate market.  U.S. companies haven’t been this awash in liquid assets vs. total assets and short term liabilities since the early 60’s.  There is no shortage of money to make investments – we just need some clarity from Washington and […]




As if we didn’t know this – Mobile data will grow 15X by 2017. Means we need more bandwidth, lots more bandwidth.

| June 10, 2012

Ericsson just published their latest report on online data traffic (you can see it here)  The gist is the global surge in smart devices / internet connected devices continues to boom.  Mobile data traffic will grow 15X by 2017.  Fixed broadband traffic (i.e. your PC) will grow 5X – which is still a 30% CAGR.  […]