Outstanding housing affordability! – the best since they started keeping records.

| April 25, 2012

The Housing Affordability Index published by the National Association of Realtors is literally headed off the chart.  (see their latest report here) It has never been as high nor risen as fast as it has in the recent past.  The index is a derivative of mortgage interest rates and personal income.  Rates are obviously low […]




The curves are “bending” upward for housing.

| April 23, 2012

Home prices are showing improvement, Residential building metrics are showing increased construction.  Starts and permits are curving upwards.  Heck – it looks good to me.  Here is a series of charts extracted from a stack prepared by Capital Economics, an international macroeconomic research firm I commend.  Jeb Terry, Sr. April 23, 2012




Another measure points to improving economy – reaching a “tipping point” in American’s sentiment about financial security.

| April 23, 2012

Bankrate’s Financial Security Index (here) is the strongest since the index was started in 2010.  The index is up 5 months in a row.  It comports with other measures of consumer confidence.  Rising confidence can lead to rising housing activity, rising retail activity and rising stock market investment activity – it’s all good . . […]




So far, So good . . . the earnings reports for Q1 are beating earnings and revenue estimates by a wide margin.

| April 22, 2012

While only 245 companies have reported earnings so far, 72% of those that have reported have beaten earnings estimates.  That is an outstanding beat rate.  70% of them have beaten the revenue estimates. The earnings beat rate at a similar point in time following Q4 was only 58.5%.  The charts below come courtesy of Bespoke […]




Market performance in Presidential election years – not bad and mostly up . . .

| April 19, 2012

It’s logical to wonder what has been the tendency for the equity market performance in Presidential election years.  I have prepared the following table on the S&P 500 annual price performance going back to 1948.  As you can see, the market has been up in 75% of the years an average of 11.9%.  I think […]




Mobile video – a big piece of TV Everywhere. . .

| April 19, 2012

As we have said in the past, we concentrate on markets where there is a rising tide, where there is measureable new customer adoption with superior double digit growth.  These markets allow multiple adolescent companies to monetize their technology, establish a successful revenue model and hopefully reach scale.  The advent of smartphones and tablets has […]




Waiting for the “All Clear” Signal

| April 19, 2012

ALL CLEAR?  In the long run . . . it’s remarkably good  People . . . Employment picking up. We remain in a sweet spot  Productivity . . . Profits are strong and will get even stronger  Capital . . . We are awash in liquidity, under loaned & under invested  Consumers have the capacity […]




Q1 Earnings pre-announcements better than expected – signal improving profits

| April 10, 2012

Thomson ONE just published results of the pre-season earnings announcements for the S&P 500.  79% of the 28 companies that pre-announced beat estimates by an average 9%.  This is FAR BETTER than the long term average of 62% of pre-announcements beating estimates.  They go on to report that the preseason earnings results have predicted the […]




Don’t be misled by March employment report – Q1 saw more jobs added than in over 20 years

| April 6, 2012

The financial media will be buzzing over the apparent slow down in new jobs reported from the Establishment Survey by the BLS.  If one looks at the job gains for the 1st quarter as measured by the Household Survey, from which the BLS calculates the unemployment rate, you will see a VERY DIFFERENT picture.  The […]




Riding a wave of Innovation – “Innovation is the central issue in economic prosperity” – Michael Porter

| April 5, 2012

Michael Porter of Harvard B-School fame got it absolutely right in the above quote.  The U.S. is presently going through a state of furious innovation in communications, nanotechnology, cloud computing, healthcare . . . The current market rally is being led by technology companies – businesses based on a paradigm of abundance vs. scarcity.  The […]