There is still too much cash stashed in bank deposits depriving the economy of investment . . . just think what could happen if $500 billion came off the sideline!

| March 29, 2012

Few people realize the extent of the panic attack that occurred in 2011.  The amount of cash deposited in U.S. bank checking accounts increased by $203 billion in the two weeks of July 25 and August 1, 2011.  In 2008, when the world as we knew it really did almost end following the Lehman bankruptcy, […]




Online advertising – a rising tide for years to come . . .

| March 28, 2012

We concentrate on markets where there is a rising tide, where there is measureable new customer adoption with superior double digit growth.  These markets allow multiple adolescent companies to monetize their technology, establish a successful revenue model and hopefully reach scale.  Online advertising is such a market.  It is reaching scale and is nowhere near […]




An Update on P/E ratios – are they high? Nope . . .

| March 28, 2012

The S&P 500 is up 11.8% year to date.  This is the best start to a year since 1998.  One might reasonably ask if the P/E ratio has become elevated to a degree that would suggest a correction is due.  The short answer is NO.  The P/E ratio for the S&P 500 remains below the […]




Where is the money coming from that is driving the stock market higher? – it damn sure isn’t mutual fund inflows . . .

| March 28, 2012

One of the more tragic consequences of the Great Recession is the unprecedented flood of retail investment into bond mutual funds and out of equity mutual funds.  The fear / greed cycle pushed all the weak hands into the safety of short term Treasuries at the beginning but since yields were essentially zero, the greed […]




Unemployment claims go down, equities go up . . .

| March 28, 2012

One of the better correlating pairs of data not often recognized is jobless claims and equity prices.  As the chart below from Scott Grannis’ blog – Calafia Beach Pundit – shows, there has been a tight negative correlation between rising/falling jobless claims and falling/rising stock prices.  All signs point to more improvement in jobless claims […]




“S&P Volatility Falls Most Since FDR” . . . said the headline.

| March 28, 2012

Falling volatility has been documented by Birinyi Associates to lead to a rising market over the next 180 days.  The headline I have referred to appeared in an article on Bloomberg that noted that volatility of daily price changes for the S&P 500 has dropped the steepest since 1934.  The S&P 500 gained 41.4% in […]




Consumer confidence is rising – setting 4 year highs.

| March 28, 2012

The Rasmussen poll for consumer confidence is surging.  There has been a 45% improvement since September 2011.  One can debate the reasons for the surge.  Obvious reasons are improving employment, improving earnings, improving housing market conditions and perhaps a growing sense that the big macro issues of the European sovereign debt crisis and U.S. fiscal […]




The Mobile Internet growth is similar to the fixed line Internet growth in the late 90’s

| March 28, 2012

The growth in mobile data usage since the advent of the smartphone in 2007 has been “staggering” according to one industry pundit.  It has caught the cellular providers on their heels. The growth is a mixed blessing – they make more money on their data plans but the traffic surge has overwhelmed their networks.  They […]




Smartphone adoption continues to BOOM.

| March 28, 2012

Over 6 million smartphones were acquired in December 2011.  The rate of growth of smartphones continues to beat estimates.  With 100 million people now owning smartphones there is furious innovation going on to put content and to enable apps on all those internet connected computing devices – the word “phone” is no longer an accurate […]