Tablet computing is already big but getting even bigger than you might think . . .

| February 14, 2012

BI Intelligence, a service of Business Insider, recently forecasted that tablet sales, such as iPads, Kindle Fires and e-readers, will hit 481 million units by 2015, becoming a more than $100 billion market.  As they said, “That’s enormous growth” . . . Well Duh!   Here are some factoids to wrap around that outlook . . […]




Current stock market rally is the best in years. How long and how high can it go?

| February 9, 2012

January 2012 saw the S&P 500 rise 4.4%.  According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac (here), a typical move for January has been a gain of 1.3%.  It was the best performing month of January for the S&P 500 in 15 years since 1997.  January 1997 rose 6.1%.  The Q1 1997 gain for the S&P 500 […]




Extended bull phases in the stock market have tended to experience a prolonged period of 40+ consecutive trading days without a daily price correction of 1% or more early in the bull phase. .

| February 9, 2012

The linked article and chart by Bespoke Investment Group (here) displays the frequency of periods of such consecutive day periods since 1980.  The market has currently gone 27 days without a 1% + correction.  It needs to make it to February 24 to satisfy the 40 day hurdle.  IF ( a big IF) attaining 40 […]




Election years tend to be positive for the stock market.

| February 9, 2012

The S&P 500 has been up 12 of the last 15 Presidential election years since 1952 by an average of 8%.  In addition, the outcome of the election has been coincidental if not predicted by the performance of the stock market in January of the Presidential election year.  As the following table from Investor’s Business […]




An extended spread in the S&P 500 earnings yield over the 10 year Treasury rate has signaled a prolonged stock market rally in the past.

| February 9, 2012

The current earnings yield for the S&P 500 is 368% greater than the 10 year Treasury rate.  With the exception of a brief period last fall when there was a panic to own Treasuries, this degree of disparity between the earnings yield and the risk free interest rate on Treasuries was not only unprecedented but […]




Earnings have outpaced stock prices. Something has to give.

| February 9, 2012

Since the market low in 2009, S&P 500 earnings are up 148%.  The S&P 500 price is up only 69%.  This is unnatural.  Either earnings must contract or stock prices must rise. Earnings growth might be slowing but they are unlikely to contract.  Accordingly, stock prices have plenty of upside to get back on track […]




Consumer confidence is returning. Rising confidence goes with rising P/E ratios and therefore, rising stock prices

| February 9, 2012

I have commented in the past (here) about the correlation of consumer confidence and the S&P 500 P/E ratio.  Recent work by GaveKal Capital  has also shown there is an 81% correlation between consumer confidence and the P/E ratio.  The following chart from Rasmussen Reports reveal there has been ~33% improvement in consumer confidence since […]




The amount of cash on the sidelines remains at near panic levels

| February 9, 2012

Money of zero maturity (T-Bills, cash in banks etc.) is equal to approximately 94% of the market value of the S&P 500.  The median percentage going back to 1990 has been 68%.  The elevated level of cash remains consistent with a market low – not a top and not a middle.  A movement of $100 […]




“Bass akwards” . . . Too much money in cash, too little in stocks

| February 9, 2012

Despite all the fear and angst about Europe, the U.S. fiscal crisis and political uncertainties there is too much money in cash and too little money in stocks.  It is perverse that investors have poured capital into the least productive sector of the economy . . . the government run public sector . . . […]




Mobile healthcare applications will be huge –the health information audience on mobile devices surged 125% last year. . .

| February 8, 2012

Recent data from comScore noted that the audience of mobile users turning to their smartphones for health information surged 125% in 2011.  16.9 million mobile users in the U.S. accessed health information on their device during the three-month average period ending November 2011.  This audience is mostly young and tech savvy.  They are the leading […]