Stronger economic growth in Q3 – contrary to sentiment . . .

| October 29, 2011

Here is a table of Q3 GDP statistics and a chart on growth in equipment and software investment provided by Brian Wesbury at First Trust.  There are several observations – 1) Q3 saw an acceleration in real and nominal growth  2) Business investment had the best quarter in over a year 3) Equipment and software […]




The bullish contrarian indicators just keep on coming . . .

| October 22, 2011

Here are yet two more charts that highlight how the markets have reached levels where pessimism turned toward optimism in the past.  The first comes from Yardeni.com and the second from the Bank Credit Analyst.  The ratio of bulls to bears has dropped to a level consistent with the bear market bottom in 2002 and […]




Smartphones continue to be adopted faster than radio, TV or the internet . . . and adoption of innovative products are NOT slowed down by recession.

| October 22, 2011

The adoption of innovative communications technologies has proven to be insensitive to economic cycles.  The following chart was presented at the Web 2.0 Summit last week in San Francisco.  The adoption of the mobile internet accessible phone has already reached ~60% of the population and is accelerating.  It should reach nearly 100% penetration as did TV […]




Smartphone adoption has HUGE upside – as in ~7X upside – eventually all mobile phones will be some version of a smartphone

| October 22, 2011

Mary Meeker of KPCB included the following chart in her presentation at the Web 2.0 Summit last week.  The best is yet to come in terms of growth in content, commerce and advertising on smartphones.  The is a very long runway before the growth potential is fully achieved.   Jeb Terry, Sr. Oct. 22, 2011 Source […]




The ISM report on manufacturing says the economy is still expanding. It is at a level consistent with sustained GDP growth and rising stock market values.

| October 7, 2011

The Institute of Supply Management (“ISM”) publishes a closely followed survey of manufacturing activity at the beginning of each month.  Its keynote survey diffusion index is the “PMI” or “purchasing manager index”.  The PMI for September came in at 51.6.  A PMI in excess of 42.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an […]




Consumers are dejected, worried, scared and irritated . . . This doesn’t happen at economic or market tops, or middles – you guessed it – this happens at bottoms.

| October 7, 2011

It seems everyone who has a survey service is coming up with the same results.  Consumers and investors are “disturbed” to say the least.  The following charts from ChangeWave Research (linked here) do an excellent job illustrating how extremely bearish people have become about the economy and the market.  Frequent readers of this blog know […]




81% of the population is dissatisfied with the way the nation is being governed – this is GOOD.

| October 7, 2011

At 81%, people of the right, left and center are fed up.  When you have that degree of disgust you can expect “non-linear” events . . . incumbents are thrown out, new leaders emerge, new plans are tried . . . It will be fascinating.  Never before has the public been social media enabled to […]




Employment in September rose more than expected. Very encouraging development. Highest Y-o-Y gain since 2007. A 9.1% unemployment rate suggests low risk of recession. It is historically consistent with accelerating growth in nominal GDP.

| October 7, 2011

The total number of employed rose by 103k in the Establishment Survey and by 398k in the Household Survey released by the BLS.  The Household Survey gain is the best since Jan. 2010 and second best since Nov. 2007.  Remarkably, the Household Survey gain of 691k new jobs over the last 90 days is the […]




More Bear Markets have bottomed in October than any other month since WWII.

| October 7, 2011

Half of the 12 bear markets in the S&P500 since WWII have ended in the month of October.  Four of them ended in the first 11 days of October.  This tendency may relate to a Q3 earnings season as well as the historical seasonal strength of the fourth quarter.  Notable bear market bottoms occurred on […]




Recession? What recession? There won’t be one in online advertising. The inexorable shift from analog commerce and marketing to digital e-commerce and marketing continues. Online ad spending grew 23% in the first half of 2011.

| October 6, 2011

Total online ad spending will exceed $31 billion this year.  Aberdeen has multiple points of exposure to this flood of spending although you wouldn’t know it from the recent stock price movement of our portfolio companies.  Sometimes the stock market gets just scared silly and sells everything regardless of fundamentals. (see eMarketer linked here).   Jeb Terry, […]