Internet advertising “soaring”, taking share, disrupting old school ad models

| May 27, 2011

The IAB Internet Advertising Revenue Report issued this week (see the press release here) highlighted a record high level of online ads growing 23% over Q1 2010.  This is in stark contrast to last year’s growth of 7.5% providing clear evidence of acceleration in internet advertising.  Full year 2010 online ads grew 15%.  Online growth […]




The SF Fed’s Tech Pulse still beating

| May 27, 2011

The Tech Pulse, published monthly by the San Francisco Fed, remains in relatively strong growth posture albeit slower than in 2010.  (see the report here).  The year over year growth rate is 10.75%, over 5X faster than the economy at large.  While the growth rate has slowed somewhat, it remains well above the 6.5% median […]




Untold Strength -the U.S. Consumer , retail sales up 10 months in a row, best since 90’s

| May 27, 2011

There is lingering concern about strength of the U.S. consumer.  The retail sales numbers for April say she is doing fine.  The following chart comes courtesy of Brian Wesbury at First Trust (see his blog here).  He has some important observations.  “Consumer spending is rising for two main reasons. First, earnings are growing due to […]




Mobile data traffic will increase 39X from 2009 to 2014

| May 20, 2011

Cisco presented the following chart at the Content Delivery Summit in NYC last week.  The outlook is there will be over 3.5 exabytes of mobile data traffic per month in 2014.  An exabyte refers to 1 billion gigabytes.  Cisco stated that 1 exabyte is equal to all the printed material in the world – Yikes!  […]




Video traffic is surging and will serve to redefine the business models of all the players

| May 20, 2011

Presentations made at the Content Delivery Summit in NY last week focused on the impact that escalating internet video traffic is having on the industry.  Cisco’s definitive outlook for internet traffic growth is displayed in the chart below.  They see traffic growing 500% from 2009 to 2014 at an annual rate of 36%.  This phenomenon […]




Investor sentiment drops to levels associated with bottoms instead of tops

| May 20, 2011

A recent post by Bespoke Investment Group (here) addressed the sharp drop in investor sentiment.  “Even though the S&P 500 remains near its highs of the bull market, nearly all the bullish sentiment that was built up during the rally has now been given back.  People like to say that the individual investor is always […]




Some more history that “rhymes” – Gasoline may be set for a fall

| May 20, 2011

A recent post by Lazlo Birinyi (here) had an excellent chart comparing the run up in gasoline prices in 2008 vs. this year.  If 2008 is a guide there could be a drop in store for gasoline.  Of course – I don’t want the price of gas to fall because of the kind of financial […]




Nearly U.S. 100 Million Households will be Online By ’16, Mobile Ads To Grow 60% this year.

| May 8, 2011

A recent article on Mediapost.com (here) highlighted elements of the most recent forecast by Magna Global (Interpublic Group).  Nearly 100 million households will be online by 2016 and 98.5% of them will have broadband access.  That will be up from 84.7 million households as of 2010 with 90% having broadband access.  Of great interest to […]




The persistent rise in commodity prices has not been accompanied by rising wages – No big increase in wages means No big increase in inflation.

| May 8, 2011

A recent post by Mark Perry on his Carpe Diem blog did an excellent job pointing out an obvious and verifiable fact . . . You don’t have escalating inflation “unless and until” you have escalating wages.  Here is part of his commentary and an accompanying chart.  “It would be historically unprecedented to start experiencing […]




The sharp rise in oil prices since February was triggered by Middle Eastern unrest, fueled by speculation and unfounded on real supply and demand factors . . . I expect more price weakness.

| May 8, 2011

It is quite clear that the recent 32% increase in oil prices started coincidentally with the breakout of civil war in Libya in mid-February following the Egyptian revolution in January.  The price of West Texas Intermediate Crude has dropped 14.6% since peaking in late April.  The jump in prices has triggered increasing gasoline prices and […]