Fun facts about Millennials . . . There are more of them, they are spending more and they are the best educated cohort ever to walk upright on the planet.

| June 15, 2014

I have collected three charts from a recent report published by Business Insider from data originally presented by Goldman Sachs regarding demographic facts about the Millennial generation – that is people born between roughly 1980 and 2000. The oldest is mid 30’s. The youngest are teenagers. The coming of age of the Millennials is the […]

Don’t look now but there is serious wealth growth going on as residential real estate improves and stock prices rise.

| June 15, 2014

The prices for homes all across America are on the rise. They are still below their peaks but being up 24% from the housing bust lows feels good. Houses are still very affordable. There remains ample upside. In addition, the bull market in stocks has helped drive household net worth back to the record high […]

Should you be worried about an overheated IPO calendar or tech company valuations? . . . Nah!

| June 15, 2014

The number of tech IPOs is a fraction of the number of IPOs brought to market in the 90’s. The market for IPOs should be viewed as recovering but certainly not frothy. As can be seen in the second chart, the number of public companies in the U.S. has declined 59% since 1997. The economy […]

Smartphones and tablets are growing fast – have much more room to grow. More bandwidth consuming devices means more video, games and m-commerce.

| June 15, 2014

Charts included in Mary Meeker’s recent presentation on the state of the internet leave no doubt about the continuing surge in smartphones and tablet adoption. The rest of the world is catching up to the US and Europe. The proliferation of these devices (and replacement of older models) means more video consumptions, more games, more […]

The explosion in smartphones and tablets drives an explosion in TV Everywhere – video consumption on mobile devices is reaching scale with disruptive consequences for traditional TV.

| June 15, 2014

Smartphones and tablets are screens connected to the internet with access to increasingly rapid bandwidth thanks to the proliferation of WiFi. The notion of TV Everywhere that I have mentioned often in the past is fast becoming a reality. Time spent watching video on mobile doubled in 2013. There are profound consequences for the TV […]

US Consumers Increase Spending at Strongest Rate Since 2011

| June 15, 2014

Strengthening wealth effect and household net worth and rising employment are leading to a recovery in spending and consequently a willingness/ability to use credit cards. As Prime Executions has stated “Stronger usage of revolving credit could be an important driver of further economic growth, as consumers have mostly shunned revolving credit for the last several […]

More evidence of improving economic conditions – mostly below peak levels – Small business optimism rising, sales outlook rising and employment intentions rising.

| June 15, 2014

The small business optimism is the best since 2007 but still far below the peak levels. As optimism rises so does sales expectations. This is somewhat self fulfilling – the more optimistic businessmen are the more they spend on marketing which helps drive more sales. In addition, as is clear in the 3rd chart below, […]

Borrowing by consumers and businesses is picking up sharply. The amount of loans remains far below where it should be relative to the liquidity in the banking system. This means there is more growth to come.

| June 15, 2014

The chart from the FED is unequivocal – bank lending is recovering which means capital is getting redeployed into the economy. That said – the amount of loans remain far below where they could be if cash was being utilized by the banks for lending as is has been in the past. Total loans could […]

Small businesses are indicating a better tone to business, this has been coincident with a stronger equity market.

| February 18, 2014

Lost in the blather about the train wreck that is Obamacare, the economy, the mini-correction in the market and the Winter of 2014 is growing evidence of improving private sector business conditions. A recent research piece from Prime Executions (here) focused on the unmistakable improvement in the NFIB Small Business Survey.  They stated “The “Plans […]

Amazing inflows to bonds and outflows from stocks – this kind of movement does NOT happen at stock market tops.

| February 17, 2014

By now you are aware that the S&P 500 fell 3.6% in January.  Such a drop is not good, but certainly not all that bad.  While the drop from top to bottom was a brisk 6.1% in 21 days, the recovery has been an even more brisk rise of 6% in only 9 days! The […]