Understanding mobile requires an understanding of mobile in China

As can be seen in the first chart below, China has overtaken the US in terms of Apple and Android smartphone users.  Smartphone penetration in China was reported by Forbes in February to be only 22%.  The U.S is now over 50% penetrated. China exceeded 1 billion total mobile users in May 2012.  This implies that as many as 300 million more smartphones will have to be sold to cause market penetration to approach the U.S. The scale and rate of growth of the Chinese market has attracted all the global players in a race for lower cost smartphones, more robust operating software and more efficient infrastructure.  In addition – few would guess that the largest e-commerce company in the world is Alibaba – a Chinese online merchant with gross merchandise volume that exceeds the combined GMV of Amazon and eBay.  Much of that e-commerce will migrate to a mobile context as mobile is becoming the primary method for consumer internet access in China.  Consequently, to understand mobile, one must have an understanding of what is occurring in China. Aberdeen has a substantial investment in a Chinese mobile software and services company and we continue to search for more opportunities. Jeb B. Terry, Sr. June 5, 2013

Chinese v US Smartphone users 5-2013

Chinese v US Internet time 5-2013

Alibaba v Amazon v eBay

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Its true – US consumers are feeling better about conditions and job prospects

Recent polling by Rasmussen Reports and by the Univ. of Michigan are showing an undeniable upward slope.  I can’t predict the jobs number to be reported this week but I am encouraged by the improved consumer sentiment. The stock market has shown a positive correlation to rising consumer sentiment in the past. Present levels are no where near elevated levels that existed at prior economic or market tops.  Jeb B. Terry, Sr. June 5, 2013Rasmussen consumer conf and employment index June 5 2013 U of M consumer sentiment May 2013Aberdeen Investment Management – a guide service for micro-cap technology investment

 

 

We are furiously using smartphones – indispensable, useful and distracting

The recent tome by Mary Meeker of KPCB – Internet Trends – presented last week (here) at the AllThingsDigital conference was full of nuggets on the fantastic growth of internet and mobile usage and commercial ramifications.  One provocative notion was that smartphone users perform some function on their devices 150X per day! It has been pointed out that there isn’t hard data to support that level of continuous usage but the anecdotal evidence supports the central point that smart devices (include tablets) are the most pervasively used devices – EVER. The implications of her presentation threaten the dominance of TV’s as the #1 video display (and information/news/ad medium) and confirm the continuing boom in demand for wireless bandwidth as mobile internet traffic exceeds everyone’s wildest expectations.  It is no surprise why we remain heavily invested in all things related to mobile.  Jeb B. Terry, Sr. June 5, 2013

Smartphones used 150times per day 6-5-13

Web and Mobile minutes vs TV 12-2012

Mobile traffic trnd chart - Meeker 5-29-13

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Online ad spending continues to rock – growing 4.6X faster than the economy

The recent report by the IAB (here) and PwC shows an acceleration in online and mobile ad spending.  Total 2012 saw 15% growth.  Mobile ad spending grew 111% in 2012.  The ground continues to shift un the ad world as online ad spending hit $10+ billion in 4Q12 and $9.6 billion in 1Q 13, up 15.6% over 2012.  This growth is in sharp contrast to nominal GDP growth of 3.4% in 1Q 13.  As a partner at PwC mentioned . . . “As smartphones get smarter, cellular networks get faster and user penetration of smart devices increases, the combination of personalization and location will have tremendous appeal to marketers.”  We remain focused on businesses that benefit from the online ad spending growth.  Jeb B. Terry, Sr June 5, 2013.

online ad spending growth 4Q12

Aberdeen Investment Management – a guide service for micro-cap technology investment