Market Commentary – March 15, 2010

General Market Comment:   March 15, 2010

The recent stock market recovery has the perma bears twisted in knots.  The balance sheet purists believe that “by God things should be marked to market” and “hells bells, the banks are broke and the central banks are broke and the consumer is broke and whole countries are broke . . .  and the world as we know it is coming to an end”  . . . and by the way – don’t dare ask them to disclose the “naked shorts” they have on in the CDS market which they of course don’t want to be regulated – Noooo – not that!

Well – maybe they are right. 

I can observe, however, that a rising stock market has always accurately anticipated an economic recovery (according to Bank Credit Analyst – and I agree with them).  A falling market has often inaccurately discounted a recession.  Now there are those who will say “BUT my friend,” “the market has done its job, gone up enough, called the Q4 GDP growth – and now we are doomed” . . . not likely. 

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So . . . as I said in January . . . “we have a sufficient number of energetic and vocal skeptics to prop up the proverbial “wall of worry” needed to sustain a bull market, a looming pile of catalytic data in the form of Q4 earnings reports, plenty of cash still poorly invested . . . that all seems to suggest we have more risk to the upside in stock market values in the near term”.   Now we can substitute Q1 earnings for Q4 and rock on. 

Please refer to the latest Market Analysis report dated March 9, 2010 entitled “Spring Returns to the Serengeti” on our web site for more data supporting our opinions on the economy and the market.