Caution: It's a risky world we live in. My opinions are based on information believed to be reliable but hey, I could be wrong. When investing, try to use good judgement and don't hesitate to seek professional assistance. Remember to set limits and have a plan...Good Luck!

Steepening yield curve has meant a rising NASDAQ in the past

Posted By on December 20, 2016

The steepening of the yield curve (defined here as 10 yr Treas less Fed Funds) has been coincident to gains in the NASDAQ in the past.  We may be in a period similar to the mid-late 90’s.  Jeb B Terry, Sr. Dec. 20, 2016 
yld-curve-vs-nasdaq-12-19-16

Aberdeen Investment Management – a guide service for micro-cap technology investment –Manager of NexTech Medical Investments

S&P 500 FTM P/E up but not extreme

Posted By on December 20, 2016

The the increasing estimates for earnings are keeping the forward 12 month P/E for the S&P 500 well below prior peaks.   Jeb B Terry, Sr. Dec. 19, 2016 
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Aberdeen Investment Management – a guide service for micro-cap technology investment –Manager of NexTech Medical Investments

US Equity Mutual funds – first inflows in over a year!

Posted By on December 19, 2016

The U.S. retail equity mutual fund investor may be starting to come back!  The latest report shows inflows to equity mutual funds for the first time since July 2015.  It is no coincidence that the long period of outflows were accompanied by a bear market in micro-cap technology stocks. It is also no coincidence that micro-cap tech stocks have only now started to see strength based on the same rising sentiment that supports inflows to equity mutual funds. Liz Ann Sonders of Schwab tweeted the underlying chart today.   Jeb B Terry, Sr. Dec. 19, 2016 
1st-equity-mf-inflows-in-a-year-12-19-16

Aberdeen Investment Management – a guide service for micro-cap technology investment –Manager of NexTech Medical Investments

Small Businesses and consumers are undeniably feeling bullish

Posted By on December 19, 2016

The Trump election has accelerated already rising optimism in two key measures for the domestic economy – small business optimism and consumers outlook for financial condition – each are predicates for business investment, hiring and consumer spending on durable goods.  They also are good indicators for the health of the micro-cap sector of the stock market.   Jeb B Terry, Sr. Dec. 19, 2016 
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U. of Michigan Consumer Confidence – Outlook for financial situation a year from now is best 2005!

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Aberdeen Investment Management – a guide service for micro-cap technology investment –Manager of NexTech Medical Investments

Active managers are going “all-in”

Posted By on December 19, 2016

Active equity money managers are bullish on prospects of Trump economy and they are putting their clients money to work.  The managers are in fact over 100% invested – typically a sign of more upside as they are still coming out of a period of being underweighted in 2015 and this year.  The money tends to go first to the mega caps then to the merely larges caps then to Mid-caps etc.  2017 should see an increase in allocation of funds to micro-cap growth stocks once tax loss selling is over and that would make for a very Happy New Year!   Jeb B Terry, Sr. Dec. 19, 2016 
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Aberdeen Investment Management – a guide service for micro-cap technology investment –Manager of NexTech Medical Investments

 

Rising confidence – few homes =Good outlook for housing (economy) in 2017

Posted By on December 19, 2016

Lots of confident 35-54 year olds and relatively few houses for sale as % of US population point to a sustained rise in home construction and sales . . . and the stuff that goes in them.   Jeb B Terry, Sr. Dec. 19, 2016 
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houses-for-sale-of-pop-12-19-16Aberdeen Investment Management – a guide service for micro-cap technology investment –Manager of NexTech Medical Investments

S&P 500 earnings are estimated to have a strong recovery going into 2017 – P/E may not be excessive

Posted By on October 17, 2016

S&P 500 earnings are expected to show strong recovery in 4Q16 and 2017.  YoY earnings growth is estimated to be up !14% in 3Q just finished and up ~35% in 4Q over 2015.  Current 2017 earnings are estimated to be up nearly 20% over 2016.  82% of the S&P 500 companies have that reported so far have beaten estimates – its a small sample so far but encouraging.  The forward looking charts show a sharp recovery in earnings going out to year end 2017.  The market has lifted sharply in the past when the earnings growth shows such a recovery.   Jeb B Terry, Sr. Oct. 17, 2016


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Aberdeen Investment Management – a guide service for micro-cap technology investment – Manager of NexTech Medical Investments

Diabetes is an epidemic – we will need lots of medical technology to diagnose and treat millions of patients

Posted By on October 17, 2016

There are an estimated 30 million people in the U.S that are afflicted – nearly 1 in every 10 people have the disease.  Think of that when you are in an airport or shopping mall.  That number is expected to continue to grow by ~500k per year.  Of those afflicted today, 8.5 million people are estimated to be afflicted but undiagnosed. There will be billions of dollars spent on better ways to diagnose and treat the disease.  We are continuously looking for novel technologies to help drive down the cost of detection and treatment.   Jeb B Terry, Sr. Oct. 17, 2016

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Aberdeen Investment Management – a guide service for micro-cap technology investment – Manager of NexTech Medical Investments

 

Lots of 30 year olds – signals sustained eco growth ahead

Posted By on October 17, 2016

Demographics don’t lie.  Baby Boomers turning 30 drove the growth in consumer spending and bull market in the 80’s.  Millennials turning 30 will likely drive sustained spending for the next decade.  30 somethings have more children, become more productive, earn more money and act more like adults.  Millennials are the most educated generation to ever walk the planet.  They are not just tech savvy but are demanding tech users.  The following chart courtesy for Canaccord Genuity is an excellent illustration of the sharp acceleration in the number of 30 year olds we can expect starting now.    Jeb B Terry, Sr. Oct. 17, 2016

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Aberdeen Investment Management – a guide service for micro-cap technology investment – Manager of NexTech Medical Investments

 

The cost of computing and data storage has collapsed facilitating the surge in the “internet of things” and a virtual “Cambrian Explosion” of new software and services to be delivered wirelessly.

Posted By on June 15, 2014

The visions articulated years ago by geniuses like Ray Kurzweil and George Gilder are becoming reality. The absolute collapse in computing costs and data storage as depicted in the following charts by Mary Meeker at Kleiner Perkins will enable a surge in productivity that is unforeseen and incalculable by conventional econometric models. That’s my story and I am sticking with it –eh? The implication is you should be invested in businesses that compute and store and not in companies that make computing and storage stuff. Software is a king. Hardware is a serf. Aberdeen tries to find companies that are kings. Jeb B Terry, Sr. June 15, 2014

Decling cost to compute MM KPCB 6-13-14

Decling cost of data storage 6-13-14

Aberdeen Investment Management – a guide service for micro-cap technology investment